Dot-Com Death Toll Doubled This Year: Staggering Losses But Stronger Survivors
"The dot-com death toll doubled this year, with at least 537 Internet companies either going out of business or seeking refuge in bankruptcy court, according to statistics released today. This year's casualties joined 225 dot-coms that perished during 2000, said Webmergers.com, a San Francisco-based deal maker that has tracked the rise & fall of the Internet economy."
2001-12-27
Carl Larsen _San Diego Union-Tribune_ pg C1
No relief in sight: County home prices, rents keep climbing
"Waitress DG fears she will be priced out of the San Diego rental market even though hundreds of new units are being built across the street [9th Street] from the Cortez Hill restaurant where she works... Rents at the 100-unit complex will start at $1185 a month for 1-bed-room units, with 38 rent-restricted units reserved for lower-income tenants... El Cortez Apartments where rents start at $1K...
Discovery condominium project... where prices begin at $199K... 'The availability of traditional single-family or lower density land for attached homes continues to shrink.', [Martin Lighterink] said...
Home building in the county remains far below the levels of the late 1980s. Analysts say the reason is that builders & funding sources have learned a lesson from the steep down-turn of the early 1990s when hundreds of new homes went begging for buyers. Builders also say a proliferation of fees & restrictions on new development has brought a slower pace to the industry... builders have sharply curtailed condominium construction in recent years, citing sky-rocketing legal & insurance costs due to construction-defect claims...
the concern is growing over the region's long-standing inability to house working people... 'We're hearing it from the (San Diego Regional) Economic Development Corp., which is talking about recruitment & retention problems among employees. And even the corner restaurant sees it.', [Betsy Morris, chief executive of the San Diego Housing Commission] said...
The situation is markedly different for those already inside the tent -- present day [mortgage payers]... According to the last report by DataQuick Information Systems, the median house price in the county for November was $274K, $1K below the record set in September & $31K above the 2001 January median price... expects prices for San Diego county homes to increase 6% next year. At the U of San Diego, professor Alan Gin said he is expecting a 5% increase...
For the 2nd time in 5 years [DG] fears she'll soon be thrust into a rental market that is increasingly unaffordable, with vacancy rates under 5% in most areas... $770 a month she now pays."
-30-
2001-12-28
2001-12-28
Tara Teichgraeber _Phoenix Business Journal_
More mid-size firms sending work abroad
"By year's end, U.S. companies of all sizes will have spent roughly $7G for over-seas programming help & other out-sourced work, according to Adventis consulting group. A tactic once used only by the largest companies, now mid-size firms are sending more work abroad, too, & it will account for 10% of all U.S. companies using off-shore programmers in 2005, according to Forrester Research of Massachusetts. That's a huge increase from the 1K doing so now.
Integrated Information Systems Inc., which has conducted several rounds of lay-offs since November of last year, now sends 70% of its programming work for Fortune 50-size clients to India, said general manager of the India office, Vijay Bhima Rao."
2001-12-29
2001-12-30
2001-12-31
2001-12-31
_USA Today_/_Reuters_
Internet Job Losses Ease in December
"Internet companies in December announced the smallest number of monthly job cuts in the past 1.5 years, a report said Monday. Challenger Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based out-placement firm, said job losses at dot-com companies totaled 2,403, down from 2.901 in November and well below the 10,459 job cuts announced in December last year. It was the fourth time in 6 months that the number of planned dot-com job cuts fell. But Internet job cuts for all of 2001 were 100,925, more than 2 1/2 times above the total last year."
2001 December
Jon Boroshok _Optimize_
Most Lay-Offs Are Not Fair or Rational (pdf)
html
"Just a year ago, IT employees such as experienced Java developers were in short supply and high demand. Now, many of those same workers see their positions treated like disposable equipment that can be kept -- or not -- to help achieve financial ratios that please Wall Street... Companies cut personnel not because they're losing money, but because a Wall Street analyst -- not even a company board member -- expected a higher quarterly profit... Exempt employees often work longer, but if they miss work, we use that 40-hour figure to prorate pay -- so people who regularly work a 60-hour week for the same pay 'give away' 50% of their time... It's also a way to drive down salaries. As the economy tumbles and unemployment rises, the labor shortage of the past few years has disappeared. We begged for foreign workers to be allowed into this country on H-1B visas and successfully used them to create a supply of tech drones willing to trade work-life balance for steady work -- even for less money. But now that times are tough, H-1B workers aren't the first to be down-sized, proving that it was their long hours and lower salaries that made them attractive in the first place. Businesses talk a good game about concern for employees, but the bottom line remains the bottom line. Laid-off tech workers -- even those who were high performers -- often find that new jobs pay less than their previous positions."
2001
_Syntel Inc_
Body Shopper Syntel and IDC Say: Off-shore is On Track for a Growing Number of Companies
"According to International Data Corporation (IDC) US based companies will more than triple their off-shore out-sourcing spending from $5.5G in 2000 to more than $17.6G in 2005."
2001
_National Academies Press_
Building a Work-Force for the Information Economy
"The following calculation is a 'back-of-the-envelope' calculation that provides approximate magnitudes; it is not meant to be mistaken for a rigorous analysis.
- The Category 1 IT work-force of about 2.5M is about 1.8% of the US work-force (140M).
- The overall US work-force is about 50% of the national population of about 275M.
- According to the US Census, the number of individuals in the 15-year age bracket from ages 50 to 65 is about 40M. Approximately 1/15 of this number, or about 2.7M, enter this age bracket every year.
- Thus, the number of IT professionals aged 50 to 65 is about 1.8% x 50% x 40M = 357K. (Note that this is an overestimate of this category, because IT is a field in which workers are relatively young.)
- One published source indicates an unemployment rate of about 17% for programmers over the age of 50. [Laura Didio 1998-01-12 ComputerWorld 'Over the Hill?'] Thus, the number of unemployed IT professionals is 17% x 357K = 60,700. (Note that this number is much higher than the committee has been able to confirm.)
- The 1994 AARP study referred to in the main body of the text indicated that about 25% of older applicants for information systems jobs were unfavorably treated because of their age. If all of the 60,700 unemployed programmers over 50 are capable of doing the work entailed by new jobs, the number of older programmers who are unfavorably treated because of their age and who can do the work required by new jobs is 25% x 60,700 = 15,200.
2001
_National Center for Policy Analysis_
http://www.ncpa.org/bothside/krt/krt090699b.html
"Information age businesses scored a major victory against the American worker last year. Despite lay-offs in the info-tech industry totaling more than 250K workers, industry lobbyists convinced Congress that they were actually experiencing a drastic labor shortage, ushering in sharp increases in the number of H1-B visas for foreign workers to 115K annually. Now they claim that's not enough... In 1997 August, ComputerWorld magazine reported a 17% rate of unemployment for computer programmers over the age of 50. And Latinos and blacks are virtually invisible in these lucrative occupations... House Subcommittee on Immigration Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) is keeping a close eye on the number of industry lay-offs as well as gathering the testimony of American workers with lengthy resumes who cannot gain even initial job interviews."
2001
Mary Ellen Podmolik _Community News Project_
Diversity Keeps Illinois Economy Afloat Even in Stormy Times
sources
"The Illinois Department of Employment Security predicts that employment in all industries will grow 12.7% between 1998 and 2008... In 1998 Chicago had Illinois' highest per annum salary with an average annual pay of $37,752. It ranked 12th in highest wages among 313 metropolitan areas surveyed in the U.S... More than 60% of Illinois exports are in the high-tech sector, according to the Illinois Department of Commerce and Community Affairs... While still lower than it was in the early 1990s, Illinois' jobless rate is slowly rising. By 2001 January, the state's unemployment rate was 4.8%, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. A full .6% higher than in 2000 January, the jobless rate in Illinois has not been this high at the beginning of the calendar year since there was a 5% jobless rate in 1997 January... As the economy started to slow in the second half of 2000, lay-offs in the retail and automotive sectors were especially hard on Illinois. For the entire year, Illinois-headquartered companies announced more job cuts than any other state, a stunning 72,641 cuts, says John Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm that tracks corporate downsizing trends. The first half of 2001 has not seen a great improvement. Nationally, 2000 December through 2001 February were 3 consecutive months in which more than 100k job cuts were announced each month throughout the nation, the first time that's happened since Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking lay-offs in 1993. In Illinois, 21,894 job cuts were announced in January and February, making it the fourth heaviest state for job cuts."
1992-2001
_Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology_
Master's Degree Enrollments
2001
| NAICS | Title | San Diego County, CA | Leon County, FL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Information | $73,571 | $35,482 |
| 5112 | Software publishers | $92,067 | $87,501 |
| 5415 | Computer systems design and related services | $72,177 | $64,550 |
| 541511 | Custom computer programming services | $75,583 | $67,180 |
| 541512 | Computer systems design services | $71,217 | $59,846 |
| 54169 | Other technical consulting services | $73,914 | $26,893 |
2001
_San Diego Union-Tribune_
Special Report: Technology Survivors
"At least 592 Internet companies have shut down nationwide since last year, according to the web site Webmergers.con. Yet this death toll represents no more than 8% of the total of venture-backed dot-coms."
2001
Paul Osterman _International Labor Organization_ pg 6
Flexibility & Commitment in the US Labour Market (pdf)
"The Wall Street Journal, for example recently ran a lead story with the head-line: 'In Current Expansion, As Business Booms, So, Too, Do Layoffs [2000-03-13 pg A1]'. The story went on to report that according the Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., a personnel consulting firm, announced lay-offs in 1999 were the highest level in a decade &, at 675K were well above the 111,285 in 1989... The best systematic way of addressing this issue is to draw upon the Dislocated Workers Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the Current Population Survey."
2001
Morton C. Orman _The 14-Day Stress Cure_ (quoted in Rita Kasperak _LATimes_
Ain't Over Till It's Over: Dot-coms may dwindle, but un-paid over-time goes on.
"Retained workers are asked to do the work of 2 or 3 individuals with little appreciation or acknowledgement. Their salaries are not increased commensurately or perhaps even at all. The resources made available to them are often lean or non-existent. At the same time, the demands on their productivity might be significantly increased."
2001
National Academy of Sciences; Committee on Work-force Needs in Information Technology; Computer Science & TeleCommunications Board; Board on Testing & Assessment; Board on Science, Technology & Economic Policy; Office of Scientific & Engineering Personnel; National Research Council
Characterizing the Work-force Problem
Building a WorkForce for the Information Economy
alternate link (pdf)
(citing 1999-12-10 _USA Today_ pg A-1)
"As for lay-offs in the IT sector, they are considerable. For example, the out-placement firm of Challenger, Gray, & Christmas reported that, over the first 11 months of 1999, the computer industry had laid off 60K employees.10 This number is equal to approximately 3% of total employment in the 'computer services' industry, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
2001
National Academy of Sciences; Committee on Work-force Needs in Information Technology; Computer Science & TeleCommunications Board; Board on Testing & Assessment; Board on Science, Technology & Economic Policy; Office of Scientific & Engineering Personnel; National Research Council 2001 "Characterizing the Work-force Problem"
Building a WorkForce for the Information Economy
alternate link (pdf)
(citing Richard B. Freeman 1973 "A Cobweb Model of the Supply & Starting Salaries of Engineers" _Industrial & Labor Relations Review_ vol 30 #2 pp 236-248)
"Rising compensation attracts into a field more people who are willing to work (increasing the current supply), decreases demand for those workers, & signals to those capable of being trained to begin studying for these jobs (increasing the future supply of new entrants)... To the extent that compensation does not rise, the signal is not sent to labor market entrants, & thus the potential labor force for these occupations is sparser than it would otherwise be.
Potential workers seeing rising compensation in IT will move preferentially into the IT field by preparing themselves by education (in the case of students selecting courses of study) or by retraining in the appropriate disciplines for IT work (in the case of workers in other occupations).
Typically, the greater are the incentives provided by employers to induce workers into the occupation of interest, the quicker & greater will be the response by potential entrants."
2001 December
_Tech Mar Com_
Are Most Lay-Offs Carried Out Fairly? No (pdf)
1999 January - 2001 December
_BLS_
Worker Displacement 1999-2001
"During the 1999 January through 2001 December period, 4.0M workers were displaced from jobs they had held for at least 3 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor reported today. The number of displaced workers increased from 3.3M in 1997 January through 1999 December."
2000 April - late 2001
_News Factor_
announced lay-offs
"From 2000 April, when the Nasdaq freefall began, until late 2001, job cuts in the Internet economy sky-rocketed, peaking in 2001 April when 17,554 people were laid off in the sector. To date, a total of 147,285 dot-com jobs have been slashed, according to Challenger's running tally."
2001 July - December
_Working People_
Lay-Off Score-Card
2001 December
The End of the Mythos of the "New Economy'
2001 December
Urey R. Miller _Mechanical Engineering_
Supply, Demand, and H-1B
"Perhaps the reason so many engineering students do not want to go into engineering is that they are able to earn more money in other segments of the economy. More students would become practicing engineers if the demand were such that the rewards made it more attractive. What the H-1B visa bill does is to increase the supply of engineers (perhaps at a lower compensation) and to help satisfy the demand. The decreased demand, in turn, then acts only to decrease the rewards. Would it not seem logical that if the rewards for engineers were comparable or greater than those of other segments of industry, there would not be such a shortage of engineers. The H-1B visa bill addresses only the supply side of the equation by providing industry with more engineers. In the short term, this may be good for industry; however, I believe it is not in the best long-term interest of the engineering profession. Let industry provide compensation commensurate with the true demand, and, in the long term, there should not be a shortage of engineers."
2001
Glenn R. Jackson _American Reformation_
Enron and the H-1B American Worker Replacement Program: The Corporate Scandal You Are Not Hearing About
2001
_Project Censored_
Silicon Valley Executives Use/Abuse Guest-Workers and Immigrants to Keep Salaries Depressed
_BigCharts.com_
S&P Retail Index
Note the signs of weakness shown in the dip from 1998 July through November, relatively flat 1999, and the drop all through 2000.
AAA southern California fuel prices
AAA national fuel prices
AAA state by state
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